If you have a home loan, Tuesday 3 November is a date worth watching. The Reserve Bank of Australia announces its next cash rate decision at 2:30pm AEDT that day, and markets are putting the chance of another 0.25 percentage point rise at around 85%. That would take the cash rate from 4.60% to 4.85%, its highest level since 2008.
Quick answer: Nothing is decided yet, and your lender — not the Reserve Bank — sets your mortgage rate. But if the rise happens and your lender passes it on in full, a borrower with a $600,000 loan and 25 years left would pay about $92 a month more, according to Canstar analysis. The smart move is to prepare now, while you still have a few days: check your rate, work out your new repayment, and put a buffer in place. You can follow the decision on the Reserve Bank of Australia website.
Why another rise is on the table
The case for a rise comes down to inflation. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on 28 October that consumer prices rose 4.3% in the year to September 2026, up from 4.0% in August. The Reserve Bank’s preferred underlying measure, the trimmed mean, was 3.6% for the year — still well above the Bank’s 2% to 3% target range. Prices rose 1.3% in the September quarter alone, and housing was the biggest contributor, up 5.2% over the year.
This would be the fifth rise of 2026. The cash rate started the year at 3.60% and has already been lifted four times — in February, March, May and on 29 September — to reach 4.60%. All four big banks now expect another rise in November, according to Canstar’s updated forecasts.
That said, a rise is not a sure thing. Unemployment reached 4.7% in September, its highest since October 2021, which gives the Board a real reason to pause. The Board has not pre-committed to anything, so treat Tuesday as likely, not certain.
What a 0.25% rise would cost you
A quarter-point move sounds small. On a mortgage, it is not. These figures assume your lender passes the full rise on and you have a principal-and-interest loan with 25 years remaining:
| Loan balance | Extra per month | Extra per year |
|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | About $77 | About $924 |
| $600,000 | About $92 | About $1,104 |
| $750,000 | About $114 | About $1,368 |
| $1,000,000 | About $152 | About $1,824 |
Your exact figure depends on your balance, your rate and how much of your loan term is left. On the average new owner-occupier loan of about $731,000, a single rise adds well over $100 a month.
The cumulative effect is what stings. If November brings a fifth rise and lenders pass it on in full, a borrower who started the year with a $600,000 loan would be paying about $456 a month more than at the start of the year, Canstar estimates. That is close to $5,500 a year.
Two things to keep in mind. First, your rate does not change the moment the Reserve Bank announces. Lenders decide whether to move, by how much, and when — usually announcing within days and applying the new repayment a few weeks later, after giving you notice. Second, fixed-rate loans do not change at all until the fixed term ends.
Your mortgage checklist before Tuesday
1. Find your real rate and repayment date
Log in to your lender’s app or check your latest statement. Note your current variable rate, your minimum repayment, and the date repayments come out. If you do not know your rate, you cannot judge whether a better deal exists.
2. Work out your new repayment in advance
Add 0.25% to your current rate and run the numbers on your lender’s calculator, or use the table above as a rough guide. Then check your budget: can it absorb that amount from next month? If it is tight, you would rather know now than when the direct debit goes up.
3. Build a buffer while you can
Extra money in an offset account or redraw facility cuts the interest you pay, because interest is charged on your balance minus what sits in offset. Even a few thousand dollars parked in offset softens a rise. If you have spare cash this week, putting it in offset beats leaving it in a low-interest everyday account.
4. Do not rush to fix your rate
Fixing feels safe when rates are rising, but fixed loans come with break costs and less flexibility, and you lose the benefit if rates fall later. Markets are already pricing a possible further rise into 2027, so fixed rates may already reflect that. Compare properly before locking anything in, and remember that splitting your loan — part fixed, part variable — is a middle option some borrowers use.
5. Ask your lender for a better deal
Lenders will often sharpen a rate for a borrower who asks, especially one with a good repayment record. A short phone call can be worth hundreds of dollars a year. If your lender will not move, refinancing is a real option: owner-occupiers refinanced $41.9 billion of home loans in the June quarter of 2026. Just weigh up discharge and application fees first.
6. If money gets tight, call your lender early
Banks have hardship teams for exactly this situation, and they can discuss temporary options such as a payment pause or a switch to interest-only for a period. Contacting them before you miss a payment always works out better than waiting.
What about savers?
A rate rise is not all bad news. Savings account and term deposit rates often edge up after a cash rate rise, though usually slowly and not by the full amount. Check what rate you are actually earning — many bonus savings accounts only pay the headline rate if you meet conditions each month, such as depositing a minimum amount and making no withdrawals. If your account has quietly dropped to a base rate, shopping around could earn you more than staying loyal.
Rework your budget for the extra repayment
Take the extra monthly amount from the table and find it in your budget now, before it is taken from you. Common places people find it: subscriptions they no longer use, takeaway spending, and energy or phone plans that have not been reviewed in a year. The goal is not to slash everything — it is to make sure the higher repayment does not land on top of spending that was already stretched.
It is also worth protecting your emergency fund. If you do not have one, even a small buffer of a few weeks’ expenses makes the next rate decision far less stressful. Rate rises tend to arrive in clusters, and a second rise is already being discussed for early 2027.
What happens on the day
The decision is announced at 2:30pm AEDT on Tuesday 3 November, alongside the Bank’s updated economic forecasts. The big banks usually announce their own rate moves within a day or two. Your new repayment, if your lender moves, will start from the date given in your lender’s notice — not from announcement day. So you will have some warning, but not much.
If the Board surprises everyone and holds, do not treat that as the end of the story. With underlying inflation still above target, the pressure for a rise would simply roll over to the next meeting. Either way, the steps above — knowing your rate, building an offset buffer, and checking your budget — help in both scenarios.
Frequently asked questions
Will my mortgage definitely go up if the Reserve Bank lifts rates?
Not automatically. Your lender decides whether to pass the rise on, and by how much. In practice, the major lenders have passed on most moves in this cycle, but it is their call, not the Reserve Bank’s.
When will I know my new repayment?
Your lender must give you notice before changing your repayment. Expect an announcement within days of the decision and a new repayment amount taking effect a few weeks later.
Should I fix my home loan now?
Only after comparing fixed rates against your current variable rate and understanding break costs. Fixing buys certainty, but it removes flexibility and can cost you if rates fall. Get the numbers for your own loan before deciding.
I am renting. Does this affect me?
Indirectly, yes. Higher rates raise landlords’ costs, which can flow into rents over time, and they also affect savings returns and borrowing power if you are saving for a deposit. The budget steps in this guide still apply.
Where can I read more about how rate changes flow through?
See our guide on what happens when interest rates rise for the broader picture of how cash rate moves affect mortgages, savings and the economy.
This article is general information only, not personal financial advice. Your loan balance, rate and circumstances determine your actual repayment, so check your own figures or speak to a licensed financial adviser before making changes.
