The Reserve Bank’s next interest rate decision lands on Tuesday 3 November 2026 — Melbourne Cup Day — and it is one of the most closely watched announcements of the year. Markets and all four major banks expect the cash rate to rise by a quarter of a percentage point, from 4.60% to 4.85%. Nothing is decided until the announcement itself, but here is when it happens, what is driving expectations, and what it would mean for mortgages, savings and small business. The official announcement will be published on the Reserve Bank of Australia website at 2:30pm AEDT.
Quick Answer
When: Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 2:30pm AEDT, with a new Statement on Monetary Policy released at the same time and a media conference by Governor Michele Bullock at 3:30pm AEDT.
What is expected: A 0.25 percentage point rise taking the cash rate from 4.60% to 4.85% — which would be the fifth rise of 2026 and the highest cash rate since 2008.
What it means for you: Variable mortgage rates would typically rise within a few weeks, adding around $92 a month to repayments on a $600,000 loan over 25 years. Savings rates often rise too, but usually by less than the full amount and not straight away.
When Is the RBA Decision Announced?
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Board meets over two days, Monday 2 and Tuesday 3 November, and announces its decision at 2:30pm AEDT on the Tuesday. Because 3 November is the first Tuesday in November, the announcement falls on Melbourne Cup Day, as it often does.
November is one of the four meetings each year that comes with a full set of fresh forecasts, so Tuesday brings more than a one-line decision:
| Event | When (AEDT) |
|---|---|
| Cash rate decision and statement | Tuesday 3 November, 2:30pm |
| Statement on Monetary Policy (new forecasts) | Tuesday 3 November, 2:30pm |
| Governor Michele Bullock’s media conference | Tuesday 3 November, 3:30pm |
| Chart Pack | Wednesday 4 November |
| Minutes of the November meeting | Tuesday 17 November |
| Next rate decision (last for 2026) | Tuesday 8 December, 2:30pm |
If you only follow one part of the day, follow the statement wording. The decision itself is widely expected; what matters for the months ahead is whether the Board signals it is done for now or leaves the door open to another rise.
What Is Expected — and Why
The cash rate currently sits at 4.60%, where it has been since the Board raised it by a quarter point on 30 September 2026. That was the fourth rise of the year, after increases in February, March and May. A November rise would take the year’s total increase to 1.25 percentage points.
The case for a rise is inflation. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported headline inflation of 4.3% over the year to September 2026, well above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target band. The Bank’s preferred underlying measure, the trimmed mean, rose 1.0% in the September quarter to 3.7% over the year — also above target and faster than the Bank itself had forecast. Senior Reserve Bank officials have said publicly in recent weeks that inflation is not yet under control and that more subdued demand growth is needed.
The case against a rise is the jobs market and growth. Unemployment was 4.7% in September, and several economists argue the economy is already slowing enough that another rise risks doing more harm than good. That is why a minority of forecasters still tip the Board to hold.
On balance, the weight of expectations sits firmly with a rise: market pricing in late October put the chance at roughly 80–90%, all four major banks expect a quarter-point move, and three-quarters of experts in Finder’s monthly survey tipped a rise to 4.85%. Forecasts are not facts, though — the Board has not pre-committed to anything, and a hold remains possible.
What a Rise Would Mean for Your Mortgage
If the cash rate rises to 4.85% and lenders pass it on in full, a variable-rate borrower would pay roughly $92 a month extra on a $600,000 loan with 25 years remaining. On a $750,000 loan the extra would be around $115 a month, and on a $1 million loan around $153 a month. Those are estimates based on a full quarter-point pass-through; your actual change depends on your loan size, remaining term and your lender’s decision.
Your rate does not change at 2:30pm on Tuesday. Lenders usually announce their response within a few days of a Reserve Bank move, and the new rate typically takes effect a few weeks later. Watch for a letter or message from your lender rather than assuming your repayment changes immediately.
Fixed-rate loans are not affected until the fixed term ends. If your fixed term is expiring soon, Tuesday’s decision is worth watching closely, because it shapes the variable rate you would roll onto — and the fixed rates on offer.
What It Would Mean for Savers
A cash rate rise is usually good news for savers, but only partly and only slowly. Banks often lift deposit rates by less than the full quarter point, and some savings accounts move weeks after the announcement — or not at all, if the bank is competing on mortgage rates instead.
If you hold money in a savings account, check your rate a week or two after the decision rather than on the day. Bonus-rate conditions, such as a monthly deposit or a limit on withdrawals, still apply, and the headline rate is only part of the story. Term deposit rates tend to respond faster than at-call savings rates, because they are priced off market expectations that have already moved.
What It Would Mean for Small Business
For businesses carrying debt, a rise means higher repayments on variable business loans and overdrafts, usually flowing through within weeks. It also means customers with mortgages have less spare cash, which is why retailers and hospitality businesses often feel a rate rise twice — once in their own borrowing costs and once in softer spending.
On the other side, businesses holding cash reserves may earn a little more interest, and a firm stance on inflation can help planning if it keeps price rises in check. The practical steps are the same as for households: check when your lender’s new rate takes effect, review any variable facilities, and avoid locking in new fixed borrowing in a rush on announcement day.
How Quickly Do Banks Pass On a Rate Rise?
The usual pattern is: the Reserve Bank announces at 2:30pm, the major banks announce their own moves over the following days, and the changes take effect for existing variable borrowers within about two to four weeks. New borrowers often see changed rates sooner, because lenders reprice their advertised rates quickly.
Pass-through is not automatic. A bank can pass on less than the full quarter point, more than it, or — rarely — nothing at all. Comparison sites and your lender’s announcement in the days after Tuesday will show who moved and by how much. That is also the moment to check whether your rate is still competitive: a lender that passes on the full rise while a rival passes on less has effectively just made itself more expensive.
What to Watch in the Statement and Forecasts
Beyond the headline number, three things in Tuesday’s releases will shape what happens next:
1. The tone of the statement. If the Board keeps a tightening bias — language suggesting further rises are possible — markets will keep pricing a February move. If it signals a pause to assess the effect of five rises, December looks more like a hold.
2. The new forecasts. The Statement on Monetary Policy will show when the Bank now expects inflation to return to the 2–3% band. Forecasts revised up would point to rates staying higher for longer; forecasts showing a return to target by late 2027 would support the view that 4.85% is the peak.
3. Any dissent. Some researchers have flagged the possibility of a split vote. A dissent would not change Tuesday’s outcome, but it would signal genuine debate inside the Board about how much tightening is enough.
Most major bank economists currently expect a pause after November, with Westpac flagging the risk of one more rise in February. That disagreement is itself a reason to treat any single forecast with caution.
What Happens After Tuesday?
Whatever the Board decides, the next scheduled decision is Tuesday 8 December 2026, the last for the year. The minutes of the November meeting, released on 17 November, will give a fuller picture of the debate than the short statement. If the Board hikes on Tuesday, expect the December meeting to be framed as a question of whether to pause and watch — not whether to hike again immediately.
For borrowers, the practical timeline is: announcement Tuesday afternoon, lender announcements over the following days, new repayments taking effect a few weeks later. For savers, the timeline is slower and less certain. Either way, Tuesday’s decision is a single step in a cycle that has already lifted the cash rate by a full percentage point this year — and the cumulative effect matters more than any one move.
Frequently Asked Questions
When exactly is the November RBA decision?
At 2:30pm AEDT on Tuesday 3 November 2026, with Governor Michele Bullock’s media conference at 3:30pm AEDT.
What happens if the RBA holds instead of hiking?
Variable mortgage rates would stay where they are for now, and attention would turn to the December meeting. A hold would still leave the cash rate at 4.60%, the highest in years, so borrowing costs would remain elevated either way.
Does a cash rate rise affect fixed-rate loans?
No, not during the fixed term. It affects variable rates and the rates on offer for new loans. Borrowers rolling off a fixed term move to whatever variable rate applies at that time.
Should I fix my home loan before Tuesday?
That depends on your loan, your plans and your tolerance for risk — it is not a decision to make on a single forecast. Fixed rates already reflect market expectations of a rise, so fixing now does not necessarily beat the market. Consider speaking with a licensed mortgage broker or financial adviser about your own situation.
Is 4.85% really the highest since 2008?
Yes, if the expected rise happens, 4.85% would be the highest cash rate since 2008. It would also be the fifth increase of 2026.
This article is general information only and is not personal financial advice. Check your lender’s announcement for how any change affects your own loan, and consider licensed advice for decisions about your mortgage or savings.
